Houston Rockets: The Most Intriguing Team in the Western Conference

The Houston Rockets have long been considered a team of the future in the NBA. With a wealth of young talent, a plethora of assets, and an intriguing mix of experienced players, the Rockets are no longer just a promising franchise—they’re a legitimate playoff contender. While many fans and analysts have focused on teams like the Lakers and Warriors, the Rockets have quietly moved up in the Western Conference hierarchy. The consensus is clear: Houston is ready to make some noise this season. However, the direction the team takes with their young stars and the potential moves they might make adds an intriguing layer to their prospects.

Youth and Potential

The Rockets’ young core has been the centerpiece of their rebuild, and it’s paying off. Entering this season, the team has been projected to achieve between 43 and 45 wins, which puts them on par with powerhouse teams like the Lakers and Warriors. But what sets the Rockets apart is their mix of young talent and future assets, which places them in a prime position to both compete now and build for tomorrow. Over the last offseason, Houston added seasoned players like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, despite initial skepticism about these moves fitting into a long-term plan. These veteran signings were costly but they’ve added a valuable layer of experience to the youthful roster.

Another key moment for the Rockets this offseason was their attempt to acquire Kevin Durant. Although the potential trade didn’t materialize, it showcased the team’s ambition to accelerate their rebuild with a superstar. Additionally, the Rockets obtained future draft picks from Phoenix, which could become valuable as Houston shapes its future roster. In the recent NBA Draft, the Rockets also held the third overall pick, using it to select Reed Sheppard, who impressed many in the Summer League. Had they opted for Donovan Clingan, they might have taken a different direction, possibly shifting the role of young center Alperen Şengün within the roster.

Uncertainty Around Extensions

While the Rockets have made some savvy moves, the team is also facing some critical decisions regarding their future. Two of their young stars from the 2021 draft class, Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green, have yet to receive rookie-scale extensions. This is notable when compared to other players from their draft class, like Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Scottie Barnes, who have already secured their max rookie extensions. Rockets fans have expressed concern over the lack of extensions, especially for Şengün, whose future with the team remains somewhat uncertain due to persistent trade rumors.

The Rockets’ management has, however, a strategic reason for delaying the extensions. By waiting until 2025, they have the opportunity to retain significant salary cap flexibility. Şengün and Green would become restricted free agents, which allows Houston to match any offer they receive. This approach also gives the Rockets a chance to navigate around the NBA’s salary cap restrictions, potentially allowing them to make major moves in the summer of 2025. In essence, this decision isn’t just about delaying contracts; it’s about giving Houston the flexibility to maximize their roster and make significant upgrades in the near future.

Salary Cap Maneuvering

The salary cap is a crucial component of the Rockets’ plan. Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün are expected to command significant salaries once their rookie deals expire. By extending these players now, the Rockets would forfeit a valuable window of cap space, given that the new contract numbers would replace their rookie contract cap holds. Houston has strategically planned to hold off on the extensions until 2025. The plan allows them to capitalize on cap holds that are tied to rookie-scale contracts, thus enabling the team to stay under the cap until it’s time to re-sign Green and Şengün.

For example, Green’s cap hold number for the summer of 2025 is currently around $16 million, whereas an extension could potentially push that number up to $30 million or more. By maintaining the cap holds for these players, Houston can navigate the cap and potentially clear as much as $30 million in cap space by declining VanVleet’s team option. This maneuverability is vital for a team looking to add a high-impact free agent or absorb a large contract in a trade. Houston could thus potentially secure a major star without disrupting their core young players.

The 2025 Free Agency Window

Houston’s plan relies on keeping their core intact while creating enough cap space to make a big splash in free agency. By the summer of 2025, they could be looking at significant cap space, depending on the decisions made about players like Fred VanVleet and the possible restructuring of other contracts. The goal is to secure enough flexibility to either bring in a superstar or facilitate a blockbuster trade. There’s also the possibility that the Rockets will pursue players like Kevin Durant or Devin Booker if those stars become available. With both the cap space and the assets to make a serious offer, Houston has positioned itself as a major player in the 2025 market.

In some ways, the Rockets are following a blueprint similar to the one the Philadelphia 76ers used in their approach to the Tyrese Maxey situation. By keeping Maxey on his rookie-scale contract through his cap hold, the Sixers preserved cap space that allowed them to maneuver within the market. The Rockets aim to apply this strategy to both Green and Şengün, which could allow them to make impactful additions to the roster while retaining their young talent.

Building a Championship-Caliber Team

The Rockets are not just a playoff contender this season—they have a real opportunity to build a championship-caliber team. Balancing current playoff ambitions with a long-term strategy isn’t easy, but Houston is walking that tightrope. They have a young core with players like Jalen Green, Alperen Şengün, and Jabari Smith Jr., a mix of veterans, and the cap flexibility to make moves. If they make the playoffs this year, it could be just the beginning of a sustained run of success.

However, there are risks. Delaying extensions for Şengün and Green could potentially create tensions if the players feel undervalued. The Rockets need to ensure that they maintain a good relationship with their young stars while executing their long-term plan. Houston has likely communicated their intentions to Green and Şengün, but there’s no guarantee that these players will be patient, especially as other members of their draft class receive lucrative contracts. The Rockets need to weigh the benefits of flexibility against the potential for locker-room discontent.

Conclusion

In summary, the Houston Rockets have positioned themselves as one of the most intriguing teams in the Western Conference. By blending youth, experience, and a keen eye on future opportunities, they’ve built a team that can both compete now and improve in the near future. Whether or not they become contenders depends on how well they navigate the upcoming season and the 2025 offseason. But with assets, cap space, and young stars, the Rockets have everything they need to become a dominant force in the league. How they choose to proceed, and the risks they take, will determine whether they rise to the top or remain in the middle of the pack. For now, the Rockets are a team to watch closely as they navigate a complex yet promising path.