The Harsh Reality: NBA Lottery Picks Who Failed to Live Up to Expectations
The NBA is an elite league, known for cultivating the talents of young stars who are expected to eventually become the future of basketball. However, for every success story like LeBron James or Luka Dončić, there are several top draft picks who simply don’t meet the high expectations placed on them. In recent years, a few lottery picks—players selected in the top 14 of their draft class—have failed to display the flashes of brilliance that justify the initial hype surrounding their selection. Let’s take a look at four recent lottery picks whose futures in the NBA look increasingly bleak, making it time for teams and fans to potentially give up on them reaching their full potential.
The Grace Period for Young Players
Entering the NBA as a young player comes with its own set of challenges. The pace of the game, the level of competition, and the sheer physicality can be overwhelming. Typically, teams and analysts afford young players a grace period, where they are expected to struggle as they acclimate to the demands of the league. During this period, however, flashes of potential should occasionally surface. Consistency might be a challenge, but moments of brilliance offer hope that, with time, the player can blossom into a star.
But what happens when that grace period expires and a player hasn’t shown enough to justify continued investment? At some point, both teams and fans must come to terms with the fact that a player may never develop into the star they were projected to be. Below, we explore four recent lottery picks who, despite their promise, may be destined to fall short of their initial expectations.
1. James Wiseman: The Physical Tools Are Not Enough
James Wiseman was selected second overall in the 2020 NBA Draft, one of the highest honors for any young prospect. Coming into the league with a tantalizing combination of size, athleticism, and raw talent, many thought he would become the cornerstone of the Golden State Warriors’ future. However, after four seasons in the NBA, Wiseman’s trajectory has been a disappointment.
One of the main issues with Wiseman is his lack of basketball IQ, especially on defense. Despite his towering height and long arms, which should make him a dominant rim protector, Wiseman struggles with positioning and timing, leading to him being a liability on defense. Offensively, while he has shown flashes of his athleticism around the rim, his decision-making has been questionable, and his shooting touch—something many thought would develop—remains inconsistent.
After failing to secure a long-term role with the Warriors, Wiseman was traded to the Detroit Pistons and eventually found himself on the Indiana Pacers on a minimum contract. Now projected to be a third-string center, his future in the NBA looks bleak. It’s clear that, at best, Wiseman may evolve into a backup center, a far cry from what was expected of the No. 2 overall pick.
2. Johnny Davis: A Scorer Who Lost His Touch
Johnny Davis, the 10th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, was known for his natural scoring ability in college. Yet, two years into his NBA career, Davis has failed to show any sign of the talent that made him a lottery pick. The Washington Wizards had high hopes for him, but his performance on the court has been underwhelming.
Davis’s struggles were most evident in this year’s NBA Summer League. Typically, by a player’s third year, they should dominate summer competition, as the league primarily features rookies and G League prospects. However, Davis’s numbers were pedestrian at best—13 points per game across two appearances. For a top-10 pick entering his third season, these numbers are disappointing, especially considering that Davis was facing lower-tier talent.
In his time with the Wizards, Davis has spent more time in the G League than in the NBA. When he has been called up, his performance has been underwhelming, averaging just 4 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 28% from three-point range. His jumper, once smooth in college, now looks stiff and awkward, a sign that overthinking and poor confidence have crept into his game. Without improvement, Davis could find himself out of the league sooner rather than later.
3. Ziaire Williams: Athleticism Can Only Take You So Far
Ziaire Williams, the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft by the Memphis Grizzlies, was always seen as a project player. However, the Grizzlies’ rapid rise to prominence meant they had little room for developmental projects, and Williams’ flaws have been magnified in his first three years in the league.
While Williams boasts bouncy athleticism and the ability to finish above the rim, his overall game lacks polish. His three-point shooting has hovered around 30%—well below league average—and his field goal percentage has dropped each season. Despite his athleticism, he struggles to create his own shot, and his inability to make plays for others has limited his value on the court.
Williams’ time with the Grizzlies was marred by injuries, and while he recently moved to the Brooklyn Nets in a low-pressure environment, it may be too late for him to carve out a meaningful role. With many other young prospects in Brooklyn, Williams may find himself buried on the depth chart once again.
4. Josh Primo: A Career Derailed by Off-Court Issues
Josh Primo was the 12th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, but his career has taken a swift nosedive due to off-court issues. After just one season with the San Antonio Spurs, Primo found himself embroiled in legal trouble, leading to his release from the team. Despite being just 21 years old, Primo’s reputation is already tarnished, and he is now a cautionary tale for how off-court conduct can ruin a promising career.
While the legal charges against Primo have since been dropped, his time in the NBA has not recovered. The Los Angeles Clippers gave him a second chance on a two-way contract, but after minimal contributions, they too waived him. Without any suitors currently interested, Primo’s next step may be to play overseas, a dramatic fall for someone once touted as a potential building block for the Spurs.
Conclusion: The Harsh Reality of the NBA
The NBA is a cutthroat league where even the most talented players can fail to make an impact. These four lottery picks—James Wiseman, Johnny Davis, Ziaire Williams, and Josh Primo—represent a sobering reminder that not every highly-touted prospect will fulfill their potential. Whether due to poor decision-making on the court, injuries, or off-court issues, these players have all struggled to find their place in the NBA.
While there is always a chance for a resurgence, the odds grow slimmer with each passing season. For teams, the challenge is to know when to cut their losses and move on. And for these players, time is running out to prove that they still belong in the NBA.