Clippers’ Gamble: Can They Avoid Missing the Playoffs and Losing Their Future?

The Los Angeles Clippers are at a critical juncture in their franchise history. After the shocking decision to part ways with Paul George, many predict the Clippers will miss the playoffs. As if that wasn’t bad enough, the Oklahoma City Thunder will inherit their draft pick, depending on how poorly the Clippers perform this season. If LA falters, the Thunder could end up with another top-five player, compounding the Clippers’ woes. However, before everyone dunks on the Clippers, it’s important to understand that the Paul George trade made sense at the time. In hindsight, it’s easy to criticize, but context is key.

The Paul George Trade: A Calculated Risk

When the Clippers made the blockbuster trade to acquire Paul George from the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2019, it was seen as a win-now move that catapulted the team into immediate championship contention. The deal not only brought George, but also Kawhi Leonard, both of whom were among the top players in the league at the time. While Leonard had injury concerns, he had just led the Toronto Raptors to a title, earning Finals MVP in the process. With Kevin Durant departing the Warriors, the league was wide open for the Clippers to seize control. For a franchise with no significant history, it was a calculated risk that made sense.

However, parting with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a wealth of future draft picks was a gamble. No one knew that SGA would evolve into the All-Star talent he is today. The trade gave the Clippers an immediate shot at glory, and at the time, that’s why teams hoard assets — to pull the trigger on a franchise-altering deal.

Where Did It All Go Wrong?

But at some point, the Clippers lost the trade. Was it when they blew a 3-1 lead in the 2020 NBA bubble playoffs? When Gilgeous-Alexander blossomed into an All-Star? When the Thunder used one of the Clippers’ picks to draft a talent like Jalen Williams? Regardless, the final blow came when Paul George left the Clippers. Now, the team faces an even more daunting challenge: win now or face a bleak future with no draft assets to rebuild.

With their win total projected at just 42 games for the upcoming season, the Clippers are staring down the possibility of missing the playoffs entirely. In last year’s Western Conference standings, 42 wins would have placed them in 12th — outside even the play-in tournament. For a team that made such a significant investment in a new arena, the stakes have never been higher.

The Intuit Dome: A Bold Move or Unnecessary Burden?

The Clippers’ biggest off-season acquisition wasn’t a player, but a state-of-the-art new arena: the Intuit Dome, costing a staggering $2 billion. This is particularly surprising because owner Steve Ballmer initially said he had no interest in building a new venue. However, after witnessing the Clippers’ subpar treatment as a fourth priority at the Staples Center (behind the Lakers, NHL Kings, and even concerts), the decision to construct their own home made sense.

The Intuit Dome features cutting-edge amenities, including five basketball courts, a high-tech Halo Board, and a unique seating arrangement that extends from floor to ceiling, aiming to create an unparalleled home-court advantage. However, the cost of attending games at the new arena is astronomical. For example, tickets to the opening night game against the Phoenix Suns are priced at around $300 for seats behind the basket, and resale prices for lower-bowl seats can reach up to $3,000.

With ticket prices that high, the pressure is on the Clippers to deliver results immediately. Yet, the team’s puzzling offseason decisions, particularly the lowball offer to Paul George, have left fans and analysts alike scratching their heads.

The Paul George Contract Saga

The Clippers offered Kawhi Leonard a three-year, $152 million contract extension, which he accepted. Paul George, who was also willing to accept a similar deal, was instead offered a two-year, $60 million contract, a figure he found disrespectful. The low offer, and the lack of a counter until the All-Star break, affected George’s mentality. By the time the Clippers finally offered the same deal they gave to Leonard, George wanted a no-trade clause, which is rare in the NBA.

Considering the Clippers’ history of trading away franchise faces — as they did with Blake Griffin after signing him to a supermax — George had every reason to be cautious. In the end, George decided to leave, preferring to seek out both financial security and a stable future elsewhere. For the Clippers, who had mortgaged their future in the initial George trade, this development was disastrous.

Enter James Harden: The Replacement for Paul George

With Paul George gone, the Clippers doubled down on their win-now approach by acquiring James Harden. Harden, now 35 years old, has a history of disappointing performances in the postseason. However, during the regular season, he was still productive, averaging 18 points and eight assists per game before the All-Star break. Harden’s elite playmaking ability — he led the NBA in assists in 2023 and was fourth last season — is something the Clippers desperately need.

The Clippers have long lacked a true point guard during the Paul George-Kawhi Leonard era, and Harden fills that void. However, he is no longer the MVP-level scorer from five years ago. George’s 17 shots per game will likely be redistributed to Harden, but whether he can perform at a high level in the postseason remains to be seen.

NBA 2K ratings, while not gospel, reflect this uncertainty. Harden received an 84 rating, just one point higher than players like Tyler Herro and Kyle Kuzma, and one point lower than Rudy Gobert and Bradley Beal. Off the bench, the Clippers still have Norman Powell, a solid sixth man, but depth at key positions remains a concern.

The Depth and Injury Concerns

The Clippers’ backup center situation is troubling. Ivica Zubac is their starting center, but his backup, Mo Bamba, has not lived up to expectations. In the backcourt, they rely on players like Terrance Mann, Chris Dunn, and Bones Hyland to back up Harden, which explains why they took a risk on Kevin Porter Jr., despite his off-court issues.

Coach Tyronn Lue, one of the best and most creative minds in the NBA, could be the key to making this experiment work. Harden and Leonard are a good positional fit, complemented by long 3-and-D wings like Derrick Jones Jr., Terance Mann, and Nicolas Batum. If they stay healthy, the Clippers can be competitive. However, that has been the caveat throughout the Leonard-George era.

The Looming Western Conference and the Clippers’ Future

The Western Conference is as competitive as ever. Last year’s top eight teams included the Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Clippers, Mavericks, Suns, Lakers, and Pelicans. This year, the Grizzlies and Warriors are expected to return to the playoff mix, making it even harder for teams to secure a spot. If the Clippers miss the playoffs, their future looks bleak.

They still owe significant draft capital from the Paul George trade, including a 2025 pick swap, a 2026 unprotected first-round pick to OKC, and further picks to Philadelphia from the James Harden trade. If this season doesn’t go as planned, the Clippers may be forced to trade Leonard and Harden, starting a full-scale rebuild.

For now, the Clippers are all-in. Whether or not they can shock the world remains to be seen.

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