Fantasy Football Week One: Essential Lineup Strategies

As week one of the NFL season officially kicks off, fantasy football enthusiasts are gearing up to set their lineups with matchups that matter. If you followed our channel last year, you know this is the time to dive into the nitty-gritty of advanced data points, over/under totals, and player matchups. In this article, we will explore key strategies for setting your fantasy football lineups, focusing on the latest insights for the upcoming week.

The Importance of Over/Under Totals

One of the first places to start when crafting your lineup is to examine the over/under totals for each game. This metric gives insight into the expected scoring in a matchup, helping to identify which games might provide a higher fantasy point yield. For instance, the Lions-Rams game on Sunday night boasts the highest over/under, surpassing 50 points, making it an attractive matchup to target.

Similarly, matchups like Miami vs. Jacksonville and Arizona vs. Buffalo also feature high over/under totals, signaling potential shootouts. If you have players in these high-scoring affairs, they should likely be prioritized in your start/sit decisions. On the flip side, games with lower totals, such as those involving the Bengals, Patriots, Chargers, Raiders, Saints, and Panthers, may be less favorable for fantasy production. Players in these contests should be approached with caution, especially when considering fringe players.

Implied Point Totals: A Closer Look

Implied point totals are another vital statistic derived from over/under figures. For week one, teams like the Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, and Texans are expected to score 25 or more points. This suggests that players from these teams, including running backs and wide receivers, should be featured prominently in your lineup.

Conversely, low implied totals for teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Panthers, and Steelers indicate that these offenses may struggle to generate points. While elite players such as Jamar Chase and T. Higgins should remain in your lineup regardless of matchups, you might consider benching less reliable players from these low-scoring teams.

Where the Sharps Are Betting

Another crucial aspect to consider is where the “sharps” — professional gamblers — are placing their bets. This can give insights into expected game outcomes and potential scoring. For week one, many sharps are leaning toward high-scoring games, such as the Colts vs. Texans and Dolphins vs. Jaguars. However, there are exceptions; the Monday night game between the 49ers and Jets and the Chiefs vs. Ravens is expected to see lower scoring according to sharp money trends.

Understanding where sharp money is being wagered can help you identify which games to target for your lineup. If sharp bettors anticipate higher scoring, it’s wise to start players from those matchups.

Analyzing Advanced Data Points

Advanced data points provide a deeper look into potential game environments. For example, the pace of play often correlates with fantasy production: the faster the pace, the more opportunities for scoring. Games like Browns vs. Cowboys and Colts vs. Texans are expected to run at a quicker pace, potentially leading to higher fantasy points. Even if the total score isn’t particularly high, increased plays can result in more opportunities for players to score.

On the contrary, slow-paced games like Seahawks vs. Broncos and Bengals vs. Patriots may offer limited fantasy potential. Therefore, it’s advisable to be cautious with players from these matchups.

Shadow Coverage and Matchup Analysis

Shadow coverage is another critical factor that often gets overlooked. Players such as DJ Moore, DK Metcalf, and Drake London are likely to face tough matchups against elite corners. For example, Moore is expected to be shadowed by L’Jarius Sneed, which could hinder his production. While it may be tempting to play all your star players, understanding these matchups can influence your decisions significantly.

Conversely, players facing weaker secondaries could offer strong value. For instance, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are poised to exploit a struggling Washington secondary, while A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have favorable matchups against the Packers. Taking advantage of these mismatches can provide your lineup with the boost it needs to start the season strong.

Start/Sit Recommendations

To summarize, here are some of the players I recommend starting and sitting based on the data and analysis discussed:

Start:

James Cook (Buffalo Bills) – With the Bills expected to score heavily against the Cardinals, Cook is a must-start.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions) – The Lions face a favorable matchup against the Rams, making St. Brown a solid option.
Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills) – As a rookie tight end, Kincaid could shine in a high-scoring affair.
David Montgomery (Detroit Lions) – He’s in a good position to exploit the Rams’ defense.
Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints) – Expected to have a solid day against the Carolina secondary.

Sit:

DJ Moore (Chicago Bears) – Facing tough shadow coverage, he might struggle for production.
Deontay Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers) – A challenging matchup against the Saints’ secondary makes him a risky start.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Indianapolis Colts) – Going up against the Bills’ strong secondary, it may be better to bench him.
Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers) – The 49ers face a difficult matchup against the Jets, making Aiyuk a candidate for the bench.
Michael Wilson (Arizona Cardinals) – Expecting limited production against the Bills’ secondary is wise.

Conclusion

Setting your fantasy football lineup for week one requires careful analysis of various metrics, including over/under totals, implied point totals, sharp betting trends, advanced data points, and matchup analysis. By taking these factors into account, you can make informed decisions that increase your chances of winning your fantasy matchups.

As the NFL season progresses, the importance of data and analysis cannot be overstated. Utilize these insights to optimize your lineup and take full advantage of the exciting matchups that lie ahead. With the right strategy, you’ll be poised for a successful fantasy football season!