Rookie of the Year: Predicting the 2024 Winner

Predicting the NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) can seem like a simple task compared to other awards like MVP or Most Improved Player. Unlike these, which are influenced by narratives, team success, and statistical nuances, ROY is primarily about one thing: stats. Traditionally, the rookie who racks up the highest totals in points, rebounds, and assists is most likely to win the award. This approach has consistently held true in recent years, with only a few exceptions. This season, several intriguing prospects are vying for the title, and while the final result is never guaranteed, looking at the numbers gives us a solid sense of who might walk away with the trophy.

The Predictable Nature of Rookie of the Year

Historically, the ROY title goes to the player who shines statistically in their first season. Looking back, players like Paolo Banchero, Scottie Barnes, and Luka Dončić all won because they filled up the stat sheet. The one outlier in recent memory was LaMelo Ball, who won in 2021 despite Anthony Edwards putting up slightly better stats across the board. Generally, though, the formula is straightforward: accumulate points, rebounds, and assists, and the trophy could be yours.

This season, we’re already seeing a frontrunner in the rookie class, and several other names have emerged from Summer League as potential candidates. Let’s take a closer look at the players likely to contend for the 2024 Rookie of the Year title, starting with some standouts from Summer League.

Reed Shepard: A Surprise Standout

One name that has been buzzing since Summer League is Reed Shepard, the third overall pick for the Houston Rockets. He impressed with his scoring ability, averaging 20 points per game, while also showcasing excellent playmaking skills. Shepard shot 52% from three-point range during his time at Kentucky, and while that number is unlikely to be sustainable in the NBA, it suggests he can bring a much-needed perimeter threat to the Rockets.

Despite his talent, Shepard faces one major obstacle: playing time. The Rockets are focused on winning now, with veteran guards like Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green firmly entrenched in the rotation. Shepard will have to earn his minutes, and with VanVleet, Green, and the highly-touted Amen Thompson ahead of him, getting consistent playing time will be a challenge. As such, while Shepard’s talent is undeniable, his situation may limit his ROY chances.

Zachary Rusché: The Underwhelming First Pick

Taken first overall by the Atlanta Hawks, Zachary Rusché was initially projected as the clear favorite for ROY. However, his odds currently sit at +1300, reflecting a general lack of confidence in his immediate impact. Unlike most first picks, Rusché doesn’t come with superstar expectations. His role as a three-and-D wing is important, but it doesn’t lend itself to the type of gaudy stats often associated with ROY winners.

The Hawks are also a team with little patience for development projects. They’re expected to make the playoffs, and if Rusché doesn’t perform well out of the gate, he could find himself sidelined. Complicating matters further is his position in a crowded wing rotation with Bogdan Bogdanović, Jalen Johnson, De’Andre Hunter, and Dyson Daniels all vying for minutes. The only way Rusché might get significant playing time is if the Hawks decide to shake things up by trading away key players like Trae Young, which seems unlikely.

Alex Saar: The Struggles of a Second Pick

The second pick in the draft, Alex Saar, might have even more challenges ahead of him. Drafted by the Washington Wizards, Saar’s Summer League performance was historically poor, with a shooting percentage of just 19% from the field—a surprising statistic for a center. While it’s expected that his shooting will improve, Saar’s path to ROY is made even more difficult by the Wizards’ recent acquisition of Jonas Valančiūnas, who will likely start at center, relegating Saar to a backup role.

Adding to the challenge, the Wizards are not expected to be a competitive team this year. Valančiūnas, with his experience, will likely soak up a lot of the minutes, leaving Saar in a developmental role. Moreover, ROY is a stats-driven award, and Saar’s inability to generate his own offense will make it hard for him to post the numbers needed to win.

The Winning Formula for ROY

Considering all these factors, the ROY award is, more often than not, an award that goes to the player who has both the talent and the opportunity to showcase it. A winning formula consists of ample playing time, a significant role in the offense, and a team that prioritizes development over immediate wins. Based on these criteria, players like Reed Shepard may be at a disadvantage due to the depth of talent on their respective teams, while players like Zachary Rusché and Alex Saar may struggle with team dynamics and role definitions.

Dark Horse Candidates

In any rookie class, there are always a few dark horse candidates who could surprise us. For instance, players like Brandon Miller of the Charlotte Hornets or Amen Thompson of the Houston Rockets have the potential to earn ROY votes if they can secure playing time and impress with their versatility. Both players are entering situations where they could play meaningful minutes and make a case for themselves.

Conclusion

The Rookie of the Year race is often a snapshot of a player’s first year in the league, rewarding immediate impact rather than potential. While the race may seem predictable due to its heavy reliance on stats, each rookie season offers surprises. While it’s easy to rely on historical trends to predict this award, the excitement lies in the unexpected. As the 2024 NBA season approaches, keep an eye on these rookies and how their teams use them—it will make all the difference in the race for Rookie of the Year.